The AL Central Race Gets Even Hotter

After tonight’s assumed Twins victory over the Royals (they lead 8-4 in the bottom of the 8th right now), and the Tigers 2-0 loss to the Chicago White Sox, the Twinkies will be only 2 games behind the Tigers for Al Central Race. The ability of Michael Cuddyer to step up and fill the hole left by Justin Morneau has been huge. The end of the lineup is producing timely hits and meaningful at-bats. The beginning of the lineup, with the inclusion of Orlando Cabrera in the 2 hole, has made a world of difference in how opposing teams attack the Twins each night.

With tonight’s game just about done, there will be 9 games left in the season for both the Twins and the Tigers. The Twins play the Royals two more times in Kansas City, then head to Detroit for a huge four game series before coming back home for a season-ending three game series against the Royals. Each game becomes more crucial as the Detroit series closes in. The Twins do have to face one of the best pitchers in the AL on Sunday in Zack Greinke, but the Royals have failed to give him enough run support many times this season. Francisco Liriano will try to make his comeback as a starter, once again, against Greinke on Sunday. It will be a tough test and I think that game will give the Twins a chance to prove if they really have what it takes to compete in the postseason should they get there.

There are a few scenarios that could play out going into the Detroit series. Here are a few:
Twins Even with the Tigers
Probability: 1%
If the Twins sweep the Royals and the Tigers get swept by the White Sox, the Twins will enter the big series even with Detroit. This isn’t probable at all, and somewhat of a pipe dream for Twins fans (as well as a nightmare for Tigers fans). I don’t see it happening, so it’s not worth much conversation. One of those hope for the best, but don’t get your hopes up type of situations. No…really…don’t get your hopes up for this.

Twins 1 GB from the Tigers
Probability: 10%
Some people may think I’m a little crazy for saying this has a 10% chance of happening, but let me explain myself. The White Sox are bitter and playing angry. The Tigers are shell-shocked and playing scared. The Sox could easily sweep Detroit, leaving room for the Twins to stumble a bit against Greinke on Sunday and still be one back. Or, the Twins could pull out a huge win in Kansas City against the AL’s top Cy Young candidate, leaving room for the Tigers to pull out one against the Sox. Either way, it’s improbable, but definitely not impossible. I think this is the best case scenario for Twins fans without being completely unrealistic.

Twins 2 GB from the Tigers
Probability: 80%
This is the most likely of scenarios. It’s the one Twins fans shouldn’t disappointed with if it ends up being this way going into the series. Sure, you’d hope the Twins could pick up at least one more game on the Tigers, but it’s not necessary. If the Twins enter the series 2 back, that means they could go 3-1 in the series and leave Detroit going into the final series in a tie with the Tigers for the AL Central lead. It leaves room for one bad game in Detroit. I’m expecting the Tigers to get out of their funk and make the Twins earn the division title, and I don’t expect it to be easy.

Twins 3 GB from the Tigers
Probability: 8%
This would be a bad scenario for the Twins and almost requires them to sweep the Tigers. If they ended up 3 back and only took 3 of 4 in Detroit, then they would be scoreboard watching for the final series, which is always an emotional drain on players. I don’t see this happening, but it’s possible if the Tigers do well against the Sox and the Twins can’t beat Greinke.

Twins 4 GB from the Tigers
Probability: 1%
This scenario is something close to a nightmare for the Twins and Twins fans. This would make it completely necessary for the Twins to sweep, which would put them even with the Tigers going into the final series. If this happened and the Twins were to only take 3 of 4 in Detroit, the Twins would enter the last 3 games 2 back of the Tigers making it nearly impossible for them to win the AL Central. I don’t see the Tigers winning the last 2 against the Sox and the Twins losing both of their games in Kansas City, but it’s a possibility, even if it’s an extremely small one.

I hope that I helped explain how the last 9 games could play out for the Twins. The math will really be important after we see what happens over the next two days. These next two games are almost as critical as the four coming up in Detroit. The Twins can’t sleep on the Royals, because as most of you remember, the Royals are the reason the Twins are still in this race.

Within the next couple days, J Ellet Lambie, the Tigers Correspondent for Fanball, and I will be asking eachother a few questions about our teams. I will post that as soon as I can, and it should be interesting to see how worried the fans of the Tigers are.

Tags: detroit tigers, francisco liriano, kansas city royals, michael cuddyer, Minnesota Twins, mlb, Twins